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February TINSA Index Now Available
February 16th, 2010
The reason I like the TINSA index is that, even though their graphs are based on their own valuations, their index accurately describes the trend we all know to be true.
You can download a copy here.
On the plus side, TINSA’s index continues to decline more slowly.
On the negative side, TINSA’s index continues to decline. It’s still around 15% lower than its peak of late 2007 / early 2008
Whilst the apparent ‘upturn’ at the end of the graph below looks promising for Spanish property prices, it’s a graph of relative annual change.
Look at the period stretching from 2002 to 2006 where the line stays flat at 15% – that actually represents a 15% year-on-year growth in house prices – the good old days.
As we all know, sometime late 2006 / early 2007, that trend took a dive and the year-on-year decline reached its trough last year.
Since then, the rate of decline had slowed, but today’s report still indicates a year-on-year decline of around 5%. It says, Spanish house prices are still falling.
A quick double-check against the absolute house price index (below) confirms this. House prices (as represented by the TINSA index) peaked late 2007, have fallen ever since, and are still falling.
As I’ve said before, the reason I like the TINSA index is that, even though their graphs are based on their own valuations, their index accurately describes the trend we all know to be true – unlike every source of government data – and, alas, unlike the Kyero index of asking prices.
Even though the TINSA report doesn’t give you much help valuing an individual property, it does give you an independent, consistently applied methodology for gauging the state of the Spanish property market.
What that tells me is that Spanish property is not yet at the absolute bottom – but it’s not far off.
Martin Dell, Kyero.com
